“Emerging markets are suffering from a broken growth model”
Willem Buiter, chief economist for Citigroup, is predicting a global recession will start in 2016, led by China.
Por: Redacción Gestion.pe
(Bloomberg).- IMF officials say many emerging markets are well prepared for a financial shock, having built up foreign-currency reserves and adopted flexible exchange rates. They say the added cushion could well prevent a replay of the crises that roiled Latin America during the early 1980s and Asia during the late 1990s.
But with China slowing and countries such as Brazil and Russia in recession, emerging markets are suffering from a “broken growth model,” David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., said at an IIF conference in Lima. “Historically, emerging-markets crises were located in the balance of payments,” Lubin said. “This is not. This is a growth crisis.”
Willem Buiter, chief economist for Citigroup, is predicting a global recession will start in 2016, led by China.
The IMF left its forecast for China’s growth at 6.8% this year and 6.3% in 2016. Still, the fund warned the “cross-border repercussions” of slowing Chinese growth “appear greater than previously envisaged.”
“I’m getting to the point where I don’t see concerns about China going away -- maybe ever,” said David Fernandez, head of fixed-income research for the Asia-Pacific at Barclays Bank PLC.
To be sure, the Fed’s move to tighten monetary policy and China’s shift to more consumption-driven growth may turn out to be welcome developments, Brazilian Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said.
Turning Optimistic
“My impression of the discussions is that they started with a somewhat gloomy mood, but people have realized that the risks we’re facing are somewhat positive problems,” because they point to “most economies moving away from the old problems and starting a new phase,” he said.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Sunday the U.S. economy may be strong enough to merit an interest-rate increase by year end, while cautioning that policy makers are monitoring slower domestic job growth and international developments. “We remain committed to communicating our intentions as clearly as possible -- but not more clearly than the facts warrant,” he said.
For some, the day of Fed liftoff can’t come soon enough.
“Our recommendation is just do it,” said Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “Take the mystery out of the thing.”